TODAY’S CONDITIONS

WELL SUITED

How well do today’s conditions suit the runners?

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YOUR SELECTED RACE

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PERFORMANCE
Matched to this race's conditions
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How to read the table & suitability score +

Each condition is assessed separately, using prior starts in the same race type and surface. Course, going and class match exactly; distance matches within half a furlong. Only starts before the selected race day are included. Non-runners are excluded; falls, pulled-up and other non-completions count as unsuccessful starts.

Wins means first place. Places means first, second or third, regardless of field size or bookmaker terms. Green: win rate ≥33% / place rate ≥50%. Amber: win rate ≥15% / place rate ≥26%. Red: below those thresholds. Grey means no matching history.

The Suitability Score adds four evidence-adjusted contributions: (success percentage − reference percentage) × runs ÷ (runs + 5). The reference is 20% for wins and 40% for top-three finishes. Missing conditions contribute zero; a horse with no matching history shows a dash. Above-reference records contribute positive points; below-reference records contribute negative points. More evidence strengthens the contribution with diminishing influence. These reference rates and the five-run adjustment are scoring settings, not validated racing benchmarks.

The score is signed points, not a percentage or win probability. Cell percentages and colours remain factual strike-rate displays and may differ from the sign of their contribution. Hover over a cell to see its rounded point contribution. The total is calculated before rounding. Equal displayed scores are ranked by coverage, then unique matching races. A start may contribute to more than one condition, but counts once towards unique runs. Scores in win and place modes use different references and should be compared within the same mode.